2015 Crop and Livestock Forecasts
It’s a new year, and many of you are probably trying to develop a magic crop and/or livestock formula that will guarantee success in 2015. Darrel Good from the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois recently reported some prospects at the Illinois Farm Economics Summit (IFES). Here’s a brief recap of what he had to say:
1. Corn prices have come under the most pressure due to two consecutive record U.S. Crops and plateauing consumption of corn used for ethanol production. In October 2014, they moved to the lowest level in five years. Feed and residual use of corn will get a lift from low feed prices and increasing livestock numbers, but U.S. corn exports will experience more competition over last year. Following an average of near $3.50 during the 2014-2015 marketing year, if production declines are as expected, corn prices are likely to recover to the low-to-mid $4.00 level next year.
2. Soybean prices have also weakened over the last year as a result of 2014 record crops in South America and the United States, and modest declines in those prices will continue if the 2015 South American crop is a large as currently forecast, and if U.S. producers expand their planted acreage. Prices are expected to average near $10.00 for the 2014-2015 marketing year and in the upper $9.00 level for the 2015-2016 year.
3. U.S. wheat production declined in 2014, and consecutive large crops in the rest of the world in 2013 and 2014 resulted in declining U.S. exports this year. The most significant price factor moving forward will be the size of wheat crops outside the U.S. Smaller crops in Russia because of their on-going dry conditions would allow for some recovery in U.S. wheat exports. The average prices received for the 2014 crop will be near $5.00, and an average near $5.50 is expected at 2015 harvest time.
1. U.S. pork production is expected to increase in 2015, as well as exports and domestic pork supplies. Average hog prices were $64 in 2013 and $76 in 2014, and an average of $65 is expected for 2015.
2. U.S. beef production is expected to decline slightly in 2015 along with exports and domestic per capita beef supplies. Fed cattle prices averaged near $155 in 2014 and are forecast to average near $160 in 2015 with highest prices in the first half of the year.
-Terry Olson, Titan Outlet Store Team